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Beach Dog Real Estate Group Welcome to Beach Dog Real Estate Group - We’re your go-to source for real estate on the Northern Oregon Coast

There’s no other part of the west coast that rivals Oregon's north coast with its beautiful beaches, picturesque mountains, and friendly communities. From single-level homes to luxury ocean-front properties, there’s truly a neighborhood for every lifestyle. As locals, dedicated brokers, and REALTORS® at Beach Dog Real Estate Group with Keller Williams Realty Professionals, there’s nothing we love more than helping people find their own piece of paradise here. In business since 2004, we bring a wealth of knowledge and expertise about the buying and selling process on the coast. We focus on earning your trust by listening, educating, and always acting in your best interest. Whether you’re looking to settle down or sell your house, we’re here to help you navigate the increasingly complex real estate market.

Fall buyers are different. 🍂They’re usually not casually browsing the coast. They’re trying to solve a specific problem....
10/30/2026

Fall buyers are different. 🍂

They’re usually not casually browsing the coast. They’re trying to solve a specific problem.

A lot of sellers measure success by how many people looked at the listing.

Views, clicks, saves, open-house foot traffic. It all feels like momentum. And in July, when half the people scrolling are daydreaming about a beach weekend, more eyeballs can genuinely help.

By late October, that math changes. After watching enough fall listings play out, a pattern becomes clear: the buyer still shopping now has usually already ruled out most of the coast. They’re not asking “what’s out there?” They’re asking “which of these solves my problem?”

Why this matters right now

Summer browsers are exploring. Fall buyers are deciding. They tend to be working against something real: a relocation date, a job change, a year-end tax conversation, a lease ending, a family situation, or simply the realization that they’re done waiting. Fewer people are looking, but the ones who are have a reason to be.

That shifts what a listing needs to do. Ten thousand views from people with no urgency can be worth less than a dozen views from the right three households.

The problems fall buyers are actually trying to solve

Across this coast, the motivations tend to sort into a few recognizable groups, and each one wants something different from the same listing:

The permanent relocator (Astoria, Gearhart): wants proof the town works in February, not just July. Healthcare, internet reliability, walkability, and what daily life feels like in the off-season matter more than staging.
The lifestyle second-home buyer (Gearhart, Manzanita): wants stability and a calm ownership experience. They’re not underwriting rental income, so a listing built around yield misses them entirely.
The investor (Pacific City): wants one answer before anything else: does this property carry a viable, transferable STR entitlement? If you can’t answer that quickly, they’re already looking at the next listing.
The value-driven local (Warrenton and nearby): is often moving within the community, upsizing or downsizing, and wants honest cost-of-ownership clarity more than a polished lifestyle pitch.
Same coastline. Four different problems. One generic listing description can’t solve all of them.

Here’s the interesting part: a listing that tries to appeal to everyone usually persuades no one. The sellers who do well in fall tend to be the ones who decide, early, which buyer they’re really talking to, and then make sure every part of the listing answers that buyer’s question: the photos, the headline, the details emphasized, the documents ready to hand over.

What this means if you’re thinking about listing this season:

Start by asking who your most likely buyer is and what problem your property solves for them
Have the answers to their hardest questions ready before they ask, especially permit status, flood zone and insurance costs, and true carrying costs
Treat views as a signal, not a goal. Ten qualified showings beat a hundred idle clicks
Price against current, town-specific comps rather than numbers from last spring, since small coastal markets can shift quickly
What this means if you’re thinking about buying:

Get clear on the problem you’re solving before you start touring. “A place on the coast” is a wish. “A year-round home within reach of healthcare, with a realistic budget” is a search
Expect that the seller across from you may be solving a problem too, such as a timeline or a carrying-cost decision, and that can shape what’s negotiable
A few questions worth sitting with:

If I asked my likely buyer why they’re looking right now, what would they say?
Does my listing answer that question in the first ten seconds?
Am I chasing attention, or earning the right kind of attention?
Here’s the part that’s easy to miss: more exposure only helps if the right person is on the other end of it. Understanding motivation is what turns a listing from something people scroll past into something one specific household recognizes as the answer.

That’s a big part of how I think about this work. Not how loudly a property can be marketed, but how clearly it can be matched to the person who actually needs it.

I built The 2026 Oregon Coast Second-Home Map as a free guide to the real motivations and market forces behind each coastal town, from Astoria to Pacific City, so you can see who’s actually on the other side of your decision.

🗺️ Grab your free copy here: https://ted-tanner.manus.space/

If you’ve bought or sold on the coast, what was the problem you were really trying to solve? I’d love to hear it in the comments, and if you’re weighing a move this fall, send me a message and let’s talk strategy. 📍

Cannon Beach and Gearhart are neighbors. 🌊Their real estate markets are telling two very different stories.Drive from on...
10/23/2026

Cannon Beach and Gearhart are neighbors. 🌊

Their real estate markets are telling two very different stories.

Drive from one to the other and you’ll cover about ten minutes of Highway 101. You’ll also cross from one market with one set of dynamics into another with a completely different set.

A lot of people assume that neighboring towns must behave like neighboring markets.

Same coastline, same weather, same Highway 101, same buyers browsing the same weekend listings. It feels like one story with two zip codes.

It isn’t. After watching enough of these markets side by side, a pattern becomes clear: proximity tells you almost nothing about direction. What matters is who is buying, what they’re allowed to do with the property, and why they chose that specific town.

Here’s the comparison that makes this hard to ignore.

The median sale price in Cannon Beach over the most recent twelve months was $907,000. Gearhart’s median sits at about $894,250. Those numbers are nearly identical. If you only read the headline figure, you’d conclude these two markets are basically the same.

They’re not even close.

Cannon Beach: a structural constraint and a shifting mix

Cannon Beach caps 14-day short-term rental licenses at 165 citywide, with a waiting list behind them. A sale voids the existing permit, so a new owner starts over. Owners who bought between 2019 and 2022 with rental income in their plan are now holding a different asset than the one they underwrote.

The sales data adds an important layer. In the most recent twelve months, 48 homes sold, compared with 34 the year before. The median moved from $1,272,500 to $907,000, but that tells you more about which homes sold than about what any one home is worth. Fewer high-end homes changed hands, and more lower-priced ones did. In a market this small, a handful of sales can swing a median dramatically.

So Cannon Beach isn’t a collapsing market. It’s a market where more homes are selling, at a different mix of prices, while owners work through a changed ownership model.

Gearhart: a ban that sharpened the market

Gearhart has the strictest short-term rental environment on the North Coast: an outright ban. And it has one of the strongest markets around. Homes are selling in about 41 days at roughly 99.7% of asking price, with appreciation of around 10% year over year. Sales volume has climbed too, from 53 homes to 63.

Here’s why that happens. Removing the investor-buyer pool didn’t remove demand. It changed who’s competing. The buyers left are people who want to live there, and they’re not running rental-income projections. That makes for a steadier, more durable market.

Same type of rule. Opposite outcomes.

Both towns operate under tight rental regulation, and that’s exactly why a broad statement like “STR restrictions are hurting the coast” falls apart. The rules didn’t determine the outcome. The buyer pool that remained after the rules took effect did.

What this means if you own or are thinking about buying:

A “coastal market average” blends these two towns into a number that describes neither of them
Cannon Beach owners should be asking about carrying cost versus net proceeds, with attention to the actual comps behind any median
Gearhart owners should be asking what their equity is for, and whether now is the right moment to use it or keep holding it
Buyers in each town need different information, different questions, and a different approach to making an offer
Here’s the part that’s easy to miss: you can read an accurate regional statistic and still make a poor decision. The data wasn’t wrong. It just wasn’t about your town. Broad coastal numbers answer a question almost nobody is actually asking. The useful question is always narrower: what is happening on my street, in my market, with my kind of buyer?

A few questions worth sitting with:

Is the market update I just read actually about my town?
Do I know who the buyer is for a property like mine, and why they’d choose it?
Am I reacting to a regional number, or to the facts of my own situation?
That’s the work I care most about: not repeating the headline, but reading each town on its own terms, so the people who own property here can make decisions with the right map in hand.

I built The 2026 Oregon Coast Second-Home Map as a free guide that breaks down what’s driving each coastal micro-market, from Astoria to Pacific City, with the real regulatory and sales facts behind each one.

🗺️ Grab your free copy here: https://ted-tanner.manus.space/

Do you own in Cannon Beach, Gearhart, or somewhere in between? Drop your town in the comments and I’ll tell you honestly what the data shows for it.

Let’s talk strategy. 📍

Owning a Cannon Beach property can still be wonderful. 🌊But wonderful and financially sensible aren’t always the same th...
10/16/2026

Owning a Cannon Beach property can still be wonderful. 🌊

But wonderful and financially sensible aren’t always the same thing.

A lot of second-home owners treat those two questions as one question.

“Do I love this place?” and “Does this still make sense for me?” feel like they should have the same answer. They don’t. After watching enough owners work through this decision, a pattern becomes clear: the people who struggle most aren’t the ones with a bad property. They’re the ones who never separated the feeling from the math, so every time they tried to think about one, the other took over.

Why this matters right now

For a lot of Cannon Beach owners, the financial picture changed while the feeling stayed exactly the same. The morning walks on the beach, the Haystack Rock sunsets, the family memories made in the house: none of that moved. What moved is what the property is allowed to earn.

Cannon Beach caps 14-day short-term rental licenses at 165 citywide, with a waiting list behind them. Licenses don’t transfer with a sale, so a buyer starts over. Owners who bought between 2019 and 2022 with rental income built into their plan are now holding a different asset than the one they underwrote. The house is the same. The economics are not.

That’s not a reason to panic. It’s a reason to look at two things separately.

Question one: What is this property worth to my life?

This is the part no spreadsheet can answer, and it deserves real respect. Honest answers might include:

How many weekends a year do we actually use it?
Does it bring our family together in a way nothing else does?
Is it part of how we picture the next ten years?
Would we miss it, or would we miss the idea of it?
Question two: What does it cost to keep, and what would it net if I sold?

This is the part that gets avoided, because it can feel like betraying the first answer. It isn’t. It’s just a different question:

What does it cost to hold this property for another twelve months, all-in?
What would it net today, after costs, in the market that actually exists?
Is that gap an acceptable price for what the property gives my life?
Here’s the part that’s easy to miss: keeping a Cannon Beach home at a real cost can be a completely sound decision. Plenty of people pay for things that make their lives better. The problem only starts when the cost is invisible, when an owner is paying a price they’ve never actually calculated and calling it “holding for the long term.”

Love is a good reason to keep a property. It just shouldn’t be a reason to avoid looking at the numbers.

A quick note on the data, because it matters here. Cannon Beach is a small market. 48 homes sold in the most recent twelve months versus 34 the year before, and the median price moved because the mix of homes shifted toward lower-priced sales, not because every property lost a third of its value. So don’t anchor your decision to a headline number. Anchor it to your own property, your own costs, and your own plans.

Three honest outcomes tend to come out of this exercise:

“We love it, and the cost is worth it.” Keep it, with eyes open. That’s a real decision.
“We love it, but the cost has outgrown what it gives us.” Time to explore what a thoughtful exit looks like, while the equity from prior appreciation is still largely intact.
“We’re not sure.” That usually means the numbers haven’t been run yet. Start there.
None of these is the wrong answer. The wrong answer is the one you arrive at by never asking.

I built The 2026 Oregon Coast Second-Home Map as a free guide to help you look at your property the way a clear-eyed advisor would: what’s driving each coastal micro-market, and where the real decision points sit.

🗺️ Grab your free copy here: https://ted-tanner.manus.space/

If you own in Cannon Beach, how do you separate the love of the place from the math of owning it? I’d genuinely like to hear how you think about it. Drop a comment or send me a message, and if it would help, I’ll run the real numbers with you. No pressure, just clarity.

Let’s talk strategy. 📍

If I could only watch five coastal markets this fall... 🌊Here's my list.A lot of people try to track this entire coastli...
09/18/2026

If I could only watch five coastal markets this fall... 🌊

Here's my list.

A lot of people try to track this entire coastline at once and end up with a blurry picture of all of it.

That's the wrong approach. This coast isn't one market — it's several, each moving on its own logic. So if I had to narrow my attention to five towns going into Q4, here's exactly where I'd look, and why each one matters right now.

1. Cannon Beach

Watch this one for what happens to inventory, not price. The 165-license cap on STR permits is a fixed, structural ceiling, and the waitlist behind it only moves when an existing license opens up. What I'm watching this fall: whether transaction volume keeps climbing the way it did this year — 48 sales versus 34 the year prior — because that tells you whether this is a market becoming more liquid, or one where the median keeps sliding around because of thin sales data. Volume, not the median headline, is the real signal here.

2. Gearhart

Watch this one for whether the outperformance holds through a slower season. Gearhart's outright STR ban filtered its buyer pool down to primary-home and lifestyle buyers, and that's produced fast sales and steady appreciation all year. Fall is a real test of that thesis — lifestyle-driven markets should hold up better in a quieter season than investor-driven ones, since the buyer isn't chasing seasonal rental yield. If Gearhart's pace holds into November, that confirms the pattern is structural, not just a summer artifact.

3. Pacific City

Watch this one for permit-transferable inventory specifically. This is where displaced STR capital has been concentrating, and new development has been absorbing quickly without builder incentives. What I want to see this fall: whether that absorption pace continues, or whether the easiest, most obviously entitled properties have already been picked off — which would tell serious investors the window here is tightening.

4. Astoria

Watch this one for whether inbound relocation demand is seasonal or genuinely durable. A lot of markets built on out-of-state buyers slow down once summer house-hunting trips end. Astoria's thesis is different — it's built on people relocating permanently, not vacationing. If listings there keep pulling strong online interest from California and Washington buyers through the fall and into winter, that's real confirmation this is primary-residence demand, not seasonal tourism spillover.

5. Waldport

This one's worth a spot on the list because it's the value-discovery story most people aren't watching closely enough. Buyers priced out of Newport have been finding their way here, and days-on-market has been compressing. Fall is when you find out whether that's a durable shift in buyer behavior or a temporary overflow effect — worth watching before it either becomes the next Gearhart-style story or fades back into the background.

Here's what ties all five together: each one is answering a different question. Is Cannon Beach's market getting healthier or just noisier? Is Gearhart's strength structural or seasonal? Is Pacific City's window closing? Is Astoria's demand permanent? Is Waldport's momentum real? Watching one town in isolation won't answer any of that. Watching these five side by side, this fall specifically, will.

Why this matters if you own or are considering property on this coast: whichever of these five towns you're actually in determines what "the market" even means for your decision. The strategy that makes sense in Cannon Beach right now would be the wrong strategy in Gearhart, and vice versa. Watching the right market — your market — beats watching the coast in general, every time.

I built The 2026 Oregon Coast Second-Home Map — a free guide breaking down exactly what's happening in these towns and more, so you're watching the right signals instead of general coastal noise.

🗺️ Grab your free copy here: https://ted-tanner.manus.space/

Which of these five would you add to — or bump from — this list? Drop your take in the comments, or tell me what you're seeing in your own town.

Q3 isn't over... 🌊But the trends are becoming very clear.A lot of people are waiting until year-end to figure out what a...
09/04/2026

Q3 isn't over... 🌊

But the trends are becoming very clear.

A lot of people are waiting until year-end to figure out what actually happened on this coast in 2026.

You don't need to wait that long. After watching this quarter unfold town by town, the patterns aren't subtle anymore — they're just scattered across five or six different market updates that most people never read side by side. Put them together, and here's what Q3 is actually telling us.

Cannon Beach: more transactions, not a collapsing market

The headline version of Cannon Beach — STR permits gutted, prices down 30%+ — isn't what the data shows. What's actually happening: the city's 165-license cap on 14-day STR permits is a fixed, structural constraint, not an annual rolling limit, and it's shaping who's buying. Meanwhile, sales volume is up meaningfully year over year — 48 homes sold this period versus 34 the year before — with the median price shifting because more lower-priced homes are transacting, not because every property lost a third of its value. This is a market getting more liquid, not less.

Gearhart: proof that regulation isn't automatically a headwind

Gearhart's outright STR ban continues to produce one of the strongest markets on the coast — homes moving in around 41 days, close to full asking price, sales volume up roughly 19% year over year. The pattern holding through Q3: removing investor-driven demand didn't remove demand. It replaced it with a steadier, lifestyle-driven buyer pool that isn't reacting to interest rates or rental platform news.

Pacific City: the capital migration is still accelerating

Investor money displaced from regulated zones further north continues concentrating here. New development is being absorbed quickly, without builder incentives, because demand is already doing the work. If Q2 was about capital finding this market, Q3 is about that capital settling in — permit-transferable inventory is getting harder to find, not easier.

Astoria: still the quiet one, and still the durable one

No dramatic headline here, and that's the point. Inbound relocation demand from California and Washington households — largely high-income, largely remote-work enabled — continues at a steady pace. This is the market least affected by anything happening in the STR-regulated towns further north, because it was never built on that thesis to begin with.

The trend underneath all four of these:

Regulation is producing four completely different outcomes depending on the town — a reckoning in one place, a strengthening in another, a redirect in a third, and irrelevance in a fourth
"Median price" numbers coming out of small markets need context before they mean anything — mix shift and true price decline look identical in a headline and very different in the data
The buyers active on this coast right now are more specific and more informed than they were two years ago — vague "the coast is a good investment" logic is increasingly being replaced by permit-by-permit, town-by-town due diligence
Here's the part worth sitting with as Q3 closes out: the owners and buyers doing best right now aren't the ones reacting fastest to headlines. They're the ones who figured out, early, which of these four stories actually applies to their specific property and situation — and built a strategy around that, not around the coast as a whole.

That gap is only going to matter more heading into Q4. The markets that are diverging now tend to keep diverging, not snap back together.

I built The 2026 Oregon Coast Second-Home Map — a free, town-by-town breakdown of exactly what's driving each of these markets, with the actual data and regulatory facts behind them.

🗺️ Grab your free copy here: https://ted-tanner.manus.space/

Where do you sit heading into Q4 — holding, buying, or still watching? Drop your town in the comments and I'll tell you honestly what the data shows for it.

Investor money didn't disappear. 🌊It simply moved.A lot of people assume that when a market gets more heavily regulated,...
07/31/2026

Investor money didn't disappear. 🌊

It simply moved.

A lot of people assume that when a market gets more heavily regulated, investor capital just exits the coast entirely.

It doesn't work that way. After watching enough of these cycles play out, a pattern becomes clear: capital doesn't leave a coastline it wants to be on. It relocates to wherever the rules still make the math work. And right now, that migration has a specific, traceable destination.

Where it's going: Pacific City

When Clatsop County tightened its short-term rental permitting — the 8% permit cap in unincorporated areas, no new permits in zones like Arch Cape and Cove Beach — a meaningful share of the investor capital that used to flow into those areas didn't sit on the sidelines. It moved south into Tillamook County, where the regulatory environment for STRs is still workable.

Pacific City is where that money has concentrated. New development there — communities like Nestucca Ridge and Pacific Seawatch — is being absorbed quickly, without much need for builder incentives, because demand is already doing the work on its own.

Why this matters right now

This is a different kind of demand than the lifestyle-driven buying happening in places like Gearhart or Astoria. This is capital that already understands the STR business model, has done it successfully elsewhere on the coast, and is specifically hunting for the next market where the entitlement to operate is still intact.

That distinction changes everything about how this market behaves:

These buyers aren't browsing listings casually — many work with STR-specialist brokers and monitor permit availability directly
They move fast once the right asset appears, because they know exactly what they're looking for
The single most important question for them isn't square footage or finishes — it's whether the property carries a viable, transferable STR entitlement
What this means depending on where you sit:

If you're selling in Pacific City: you're likely negotiating with a buyer who has already run the numbers on rental income before they ever toured the property. Permit status and revenue history matter more here than staging.

If you're an investor watching this trend: the window is open, but it's not indefinite. Absorption of new construction in Pacific City is happening at a pace that suggests the easiest entry points won't stay available forever.

If you own in a regulated zone further north: understanding where this capital went helps explain your own buyer pool — the investor who might have paid a premium for your property in 2021 is very likely now looking at Pacific City instead.

Here's the part that's easy to miss: this isn't really a story about Pacific City being "hot." It's a story about regulation acting as a redirect, not a shutoff valve. The capital is the same. The thesis — STR income on the Oregon Coast — is the same. Only the address changed.

That's the kind of shift that's easy to miss if you're only watching one town at a time, which is exactly why treating this coastline as five or six separate, connected stories matters more than watching any single headline.

I put together The 2026 Oregon Coast Second-Home Map — a free guide tracking exactly where capital and demand are moving across the coast right now, town by town.

🗺️ Grab your free copy here: https://ted-tanner.manus.space/

Want a neighborhood-specific market update? Drop your town in the comments or send me a message, and I'll tell you honestly what the data shows for it.

Not every coastal market slowed down. 🌊Gearhart didn't get the memo — and once you understand why, it stops looking like...
07/24/2026

Not every coastal market slowed down. 🌊

Gearhart didn't get the memo — and once you understand why, it stops looking like an exception and starts looking like a pattern.

A lot of people assume that stricter short-term rental rules automatically mean a softer market.

Gearhart is the clearest argument against that assumption anywhere on this coast. The town implemented an outright ban on short-term rentals via municipal ordinance — the strictest STR environment of any town in the area. And yet homes there are selling in around 41 days, close to full asking price, with steady price appreciation year over year. That's not a coincidence. It's a direct result of the ban, not something that happened despite it.

Here's the pattern that becomes clear once you look closely:

Removing the investor-buyer pool didn't remove demand from Gearhart. It just changed who's competing for the homes that come up for sale.

Investor and STR buyers, who were competing on projected rental income, are largely out of the equation
What's left is a buyer pool of primary-home owners and lifestyle buyers who are competing on livability, not yield
That's a fundamentally more stable foundation for a market — fewer buyers walking away when regulations shift, because the regulation was never part of their calculation to begin with
Why this matters right now

A market driven by people who want to live somewhere behaves very differently than a market driven by people trying to generate income from a property. Income-driven markets react sharply to policy changes, interest rates, and rental platform trends. Lifestyle-driven markets are slower to spook and slower to overheat — they just move steadily.

That shows up in the numbers. Sales volume in Gearhart has been climbing — homes sold there increased from 53 to 63 in a year, roughly a 19% jump, in a town that isn't getting any bigger. Limited, fixed geography plus a growing, stable buyer base is exactly the setup that keeps a market moving in one direction: up, slowly and durably.

What this means if you're thinking about buying or selling in Gearhart:

Don't wait for "a dip" the way you might in an investor-driven market — the buyer pool here isn't leaving because of a rate change or a slow news week
If you're selling, your buyer is choosing Gearhart specifically for the lifestyle it offers — lead with that, not with rental-income projections
If you're buying, understand you're competing against people who've already decided this is where they want to live, not people running spreadsheets — that changes how offers get made and won
But here's the part that's easy to miss: Gearhart isn't succeeding by accident, and it isn't succeeding despite its regulations. It's succeeding because the town made a clear choice about what kind of market it wanted to be, and the data backs up that the choice worked.

That's the piece most generic coastal market commentary skips entirely — treating every regulation as a headwind, when in Gearhart's case, it's functioned as a filter that strengthened the market underneath it.

I put together The 2026 Oregon Coast Second-Home Map — a free guide breaking down why towns like Gearhart, Cannon Beach, and Pacific City are moving in completely different directions right now, with the actual data behind each one.

🗺️ Grab your free copy here: https://ted-tanner.manus.space/

Want a neighborhood-specific market update? Drop your town in the comments or send me a message, and I'll tell you honestly what the data shows for it.

The biggest risk for many Cannon Beach owners today isn't the market.It's waiting for the market to become what it used ...
07/18/2026

The biggest risk for many Cannon Beach owners today isn't the market.

It's waiting for the market to become what it used to be. 🌊

That one sentence explains more about what's happening in Cannon Beach right now than any headline about STR caps or price drops. And if you own property there, it's worth sitting with for a minute — especially once you separate what's actually true from what's just gotten repeated enough to sound true.

A lot of owners assume the smart move is to hold until things "go back to normal."

It's an understandable instinct. But after watching enough of these situations play out, a pattern becomes clear: the owners who wait for the old rules to come back aren't preserving their position. They're slowly losing it. Here's why — with the actual numbers, not the version that's been circulating.

What actually changed with STR permits

A lot of owners believe new short-term rental permits are capped at 14 rental days a year. That's not quite right, and the distinction matters.

The 14-day permit allows one rental tenancy of up to 14 consecutive days at a time — and it renews annually, so it's not a hard 14-days-per-year ceiling. What's actually constraining new supply is the citywide cap: 165 total 14-day licenses, full stop. Once that cap is reached, new applicants go on a first-come, first-served waiting list, and a license only becomes available when an existing one is revoked or an owner exits the program.

That's a meaningfully different situation than "14 days a year." It's not that STR income has been made worthless — it's that the pool of licenses is fixed and finite, and getting one now largely depends on someone else's spot opening up.

What's actually happening to prices

Here's the part that gets misrepresented most often: the claim that Cannon Beach prices are down "14 to 35% year over year." Technically, if you only look at the median, that's almost true — but it tells the wrong story.

Pulling directly from RMLS (residential sales, houses and condos, excluding fractional ownership):

2024–2025: 34 homes sold, median price $1,272,500
2025–2026: 48 homes sold, median price $907,000
Run that as simple math and you get a 28.7% year-over-year decline — a $365,500 drop. Alarming, if that's all you look at.

But here's the interesting part: Cannon Beach is a small market. When only 34–48 homes sell in a given year, the median is extremely sensitive to which homes happen to sell — not a broad repricing of the whole town. What actually happened is that more homes sold this year, and the ones selling were lower-priced than last year's mix. That's a shift in transaction volume and buyer accessibility, not a 30% haircut on your specific property's value.

This is a carry-cost conversation, not a market-collapse conversation.

The real strategic question for owners isn't "how far down is the market." It's:

What does it cost to hold this property for another year, all-in?
What would this property actually net if sold today, given the real license and buyer landscape — not the misread version of it?
Is that gap growing or shrinking the longer this waits?
What this actually means for strategic timing:

The STR license constraint is structural (a fixed cap and waitlist), not a rolling annual limit — that changes how you evaluate a property's income potential
More transaction volume at accessible price points can mean a healthier, more liquid market for sellers — not a weaker one
Equity from 2020–2023 appreciation is, for many owners, still largely intact — small-market medians swinging on mix shouldn't be mistaken for that equity disappearing
If you're holding a Cannon Beach property and you've been going off headlines about a 14-day cap or a 35% crash — it's worth getting the actual numbers for your situation before deciding anything. The correct facts usually change the conversation.

I put together The 2026 Oregon Coast Second-Home Map — a free guide breaking down what's actually happening in Cannon Beach and the other coastal micro-markets, grounded in real ordinance language and MLS data, not secondhand summaries.

🗺️ Grab your free copy here: https://ted-tanner.manus.space/

Thinking about selling your second home? I'd be glad to run the actual carry-cost-versus-net-proceeds numbers for your specific property, using verified permit and sales data — no pressure, just clarity. Drop a comment or send a message, and let's look at it together.

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