Foot's Forecast

Foot's Forecast Central Maryland weather intelligence by a collaborative team of experienced local forecasters.
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1:39 AM 12/6 - The WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES mentioned in this post have been extended until 7:00 AM EST Saturday mornin...
12/06/2025

1:39 AM 12/6 - The WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES mentioned in this post have been extended until 7:00 AM EST Saturday morning

6:22 PM 12/5 - Friday morning turned out to be a bit of a mess. Although snow did not make it much further north than we...
12/05/2025

6:22 PM 12/5 - Friday morning turned out to be a bit of a mess. Although snow did not make it much further north than we forecasted, a few moderate bands of snow were able to make their way into areas north of U.S. Route 50. As a result, widespread snowfall totals south of Interstate 70 to the west of Baltimore were able to reach 1" to 2", with lesser totals to the north. For comparison purposes, I have attached our final forecast for snow accumulation, alongside a map of total snow accumulations from the event based on reports sent in to the National Weather Service.

Temperatures across the area remain below freezing, running in the upper 20s and low 30s. In addition, fog and very light isolated showers have developed over the region. As a result, this moisture is expected to freeze as it contacts the ground, with ground temperatures remaining below freezing. This has led to the issuance of a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for southern portions of the forecast area, spanning Montgomery, Howard, southern Baltimore, and southern Harford Counties and points south. A light glaze of ice accumulation is possible. A graphic with additional details in attached to this post.

Be careful on the roadways. In areas where the alert is not in effect, air temperatures remain below freezing. Any residual moisture on the roadways will have the potential to freeze.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

9:29 AM 12/5 - Numerous county public school systems did wind up closing after re-evaluating travel conditions. Please b...
12/05/2025

9:29 AM 12/5 - Numerous county public school systems did wind up closing after re-evaluating travel conditions. Please be safe on the roadways today. With air temperatures expected to struggle to reach above the freezing mark for many areas, and roads that are slick right now will likely continue to be so.

Some melting is expected to take place once the sun reaches a higher angle in the sky. Any liquid that remains on the roadways will likely freeze overnight. However, some drying out is expected with precipitation rolling out of the area during the afternoon.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

6:26 AM 12/5 - Numerous counties have opted to open their public schools on a delayed schedule this morning, and many pl...
12/05/2025

6:26 AM 12/5 - Numerous counties have opted to open their public schools on a delayed schedule this morning, and many plan to re-evaluate their plans later this morning. As I will likely be in class, be sure to check the website ot social media page of you local school systems for information pertaining to closures. I will attempt to have an updated post out around 9:30 AM, but this will likely be too late for many.

Please keep in mind that the graphic indicates the school system's plan for students and may not accurate depict information relation to employees, bus drivers, and other workers. The school districts in Adams and York Counties are opening on time.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES remain in effect for southern portions of the forecast area, but have been lifted across southern Baltimore, Howard, and northwestern Montgomery Counties.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

6:40 PM 12/4 - Here is our final snowfall forecast for the event moving into the area early Friday morning.Precipitation...
12/04/2025

6:40 PM 12/4 - Here is our final snowfall forecast for the event moving into the area early Friday morning.

Precipitation is expected to push into the area during the early morning hours on Friday, prior to sunrise. With precipitation moving into the area from the southeast, the first portions of the forecast area expected to be impacted will likely be those to the south of U.S. Route 50. The northern extent of snowfall will gradually shift northwards from there, with most areas to the south of Interstate 70 seeing snowfall begin within an hour or so on either side of sunrise. Areas to the north of Interstate 70 may see some flurries, however, precipitation will be fairly insignificant.

All precipitation associated with this system is expected to fall as snow. Temperatures across the forecast area will be more than cool enough to support this, hanging in the mid- 20s to low 30s at the warmest for the duration of the event.

However, there are some factors that will lead to a reduction in snowfall totals. With high pressure over the area prior to the system moving in, the air will be dry. Some snow will be evaporated by the atmosphere in order for it to become moist enough and support snow making it to the surface. In addition, this dry air will produce snowflakes that are very fine. These flakes will take longer to accumulate when compared to larger and fluffier flakes.

With this in mind, we are still expecting between 1” and 2” of snow for most areas to the south of Washington, D.C. and Annapolis. Areas between Interstate 70 and U.S. Route 50 will see reduced totals, up to 1”. With temperatures as cold as they are forecasted to be, all snow that falls is expected to accumulate. As a result, driving conditions Friday morning will likely be dicey, especially to the south of U.S. Route 50.

Snow totals will be heavily influenced by the exact track of the low pressure system. If the system takes a more northerly path, more significant snowfall totals may be able to push their way into the southern portions of the forecast area. This would result in some locations possibly nearing 3”. In addition, areas as far north as Interstate 95 could see snowfall totals approach or even surpass the 1”-mark under this scenario.

However, if the system turns out to take a more southerly track, most portions of the forecast area will struggle to see 1” of accumulation. Snowfall accumulations of up to 1/2” would still be possible between Interstate 70 and U.S. Route 50, with areas to the north of Interstate 70 struggling to even see a few flurries.

Nonetheless, any snow that does make it into the area will begin to break up into scattered to isolated snow showers by the afternoon hours. As the low strengthens off of the Atlantic coast as it pulls away from the area, lingering isolated snow showers cannot be ruled out through much of the afternoon and evening. However, these are expected to be insignificant and not lead to any notable accumulations.

Due to the timing of the event, right around rush hour, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES have been issued for most areas to the south of Interstate 70. To the north SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS are in place describing the rush hour threat of some snowfall that may lead to some minor accumulations. These are described in the attached images.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

5:47 PM 12/3 - Mother nature seems to have wanted to give us an early taste of winter this year.Wednesday night, low tem...
12/03/2025

5:47 PM 12/3 - Mother nature seems to have wanted to give us an early taste of winter this year.

Wednesday night, low temperatures will dip into the mid- to upper 20s across the area. Skies will be partly cloudy and winds will blow into the area from the west around 5 MPH.

During the day on Thursday, temperatures will remain chilly, only reaching as high as the upper 30s and low 40s. Winds will slightly shift to blow into the area from the northwest. Speeds around 15 MPH will be accompanied by gusts up to 30 MPH. Skies will be partly cloudy, for the most part, with an increase in coverage during the mid-morning through early afternoon.

Weather will begin to shift Thursday night. Winds from the northwest will gradually shift to blow in from the north. Speeds will also gradually weaken, from between 10 and 15 MPH around sunset, to near or below 5 MPH for most of the overnight. These winds will act to blow cooler air into the area, resulting in low temperatures that will dip into the upper 10s and low 20s across the region. Wind chills will also drop to the low to mid-10s. Relatively clear to partly cloudy skies will become cloudy by sunrise.

Friday will bring our next chance for wintry precipitation. This system will act similar to our previous system. Currently located in the Gulf, the central point of minimum pressure is expected to rise northeastwards onto the coast of the Florida panhandle, trek through Georgia and the Carolinas, before moving just offshore of the Outer Banks Friday afternoon.

Ultimately, the strength of a high pressure system that is expected to move into the Northeast will determine the threat of wintry precipitation across the area. If this high pressure strengthens as it moves across the region, the low pressure system will be suppressed to the south, leading to cooler temperatures but less snow. However, if the high pressure weakens, the low pressure system will be able to move a bit further north and produce snowfall across the region.

Timing with this system also seems to be fairly similar to the previous system, just with cooler temperatures in place. The greatest chance for snow will be right around the time of sunrise on Friday. At this time, the regions that possess the greatest chance to surpass 1” of snow accumulation are to the south of U.S. Route 50, with areas to the north seeing lesser totals, maximizing around 1/2".
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

8:17 PM 12/2 - Well... that was just disappointing. Am I the only one that is convinced we will never get a storm system...
12/03/2025

8:17 PM 12/2 - Well... that was just disappointing. Am I the only one that is convinced we will never get a storm system to actually produce snow totals similar to what models are indicating? Nonetheless, most portions of the forecast area struggled to even surpass 1/2" of snow accumulations. There were two locations that saw totals surpass this level on a widespread basis. The first was portions of the forecast area along the Mason-Dixon Line to the west of the city of Frederick. These areas saw widespread totals between 1/2" and 1”, with a few localized reports upwards of 2”. The second location was across northern portions of York County, closer to Harrisburg. These locations saw widespread snowfall totals in the vicinity of 1” to 3”.

With this in mind, no matter the type of precipitation that was experienced for a given region, roadways remain fairly wet across the entire forecast area. Temperatures during the overnight hours are expected to drop below freezing, especially north and west of Interstate 95, although multiple locations further south may do so as well. As a result, any remaining liquid on the roadways will likely freeze. Although it can never be guaranteed, this may lead to a few school systems opting to delay their openings. Early morning travel will be impacted, so allow yourself a little extra time on your morning commute.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

7:58 AM 12/2 - Here is an updated look at school delays and closures across Maryland. For areas near and south of the Ma...
12/02/2025

7:58 AM 12/2 - Here is an updated look at school delays and closures across Maryland. For areas near and south of the Mason-Dixon Line, precipitation has changed over from snow to a mixed mess of sleet and rain. In the northern-most portions of the forecast area in Adams and York Counties, some snow may still be falling. With daytime heating expected to raise temperatures a few degrees, most will likely change over to rain over the next hour or two.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

5:58 AM 12/2 - Precipitation has spread across a majority of the forecast area at this point. Most areas to the north an...
12/02/2025

5:58 AM 12/2 - Precipitation has spread across a majority of the forecast area at this point. Most areas to the north and west of Interstate 95 are seeing precipitation fall as sleet, with rain to the south and east. Some locations along and north of the Mason-Dixon Line are seeing snowfall, with up to 1/2" of accumulation. Roads in these areas have also seen some accumulation. How's it look near you?

Multiple school systems have adjusted their schedules as a result. Many are opening on a two-hour delay with a plan to re-evaluate later this morning. I have included a map of these delays and closures with this post. These are based on impacts for grade-school students and should not be used for employees or pre-k students, as they run on separate schedules. Feel free to share the district schedule changes for Adams and York Counties. They are not included as I have not yet determined the best way to include the separate districts into the map.

In Frederick County, county public schools are closed. Similar to neighboring counties, they likely would have opened on a two-hour delay with a re-evaluation. However, an early closure was already scheduled, likely leading to the decision to close.

I have included the forecasted snow and ice accumulation maps, as well as the active weather alerts.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

6:30 PM 12/1 - Maybe it simply wasn’t meant to be. Since our last update, many models have shifted the transition line b...
12/01/2025

6:30 PM 12/1 - Maybe it simply wasn’t meant to be. Since our last update, many models have shifted the transition line between rain and snow about 20 miles to the northwest. As a result, lesser snow accumulation totals are expected across the area. However, the threat of some ice accumulation is beginning to increase. Here is a complete look at what to expect.

During the overnight hours tonight, the forecasted coverage of clouds across the area has increased. During the winter, cloud coverage after sunset acts to hold temperatures a few degrees warmer than expected, as they act to trap heat between the surface and the base of the cloud layer. As a result, slightly warmer temperatures are expected at the onset of precipitation. This has brough the transition line between wintry precipitation and rain a bit further north and west than initially anticipated in our previous forecast.

Precipitation is also expected to take a bit longer to move into the area than in our previous forecast. For the western-most portions of the forecast area, this will likely be an hour or two prior to sunrise. In these areas, overnight temperatures will likely be a degree or two below freezing. Snowfall will act to hold temperatures at these levels for an hour or two after sunrise, as a result of atmospheric cooling, when snowfall is able to cool the atmosphere through direct contact with it. This is where the most significant snow accumulations, between 1” and 3”, and ice accumulation, up to 1/10”, are expected.

For most other portions of the forecast area, precipitation will likely roll in within an hour or two of sunrise, where temperatures will run near or above freezing. This will lead to a fairly brief period of snowfall and freezing rain that will likely only an hour or two. In these locations, up to 1” of snow accumulation is possible, as well as a light glaze of ice.

There are a few trends we need to keep an eye on throughout the evening and overnight hours. If cloud coverage takes a bit longer to build into the area this evening, temperatures will be able to drop further than expected. This would support a slightly longer period of wintry precipitation throughout the morning.

In addition, we also need to keep an eye on when the front edge of precipitation moves into the area. If precipitation moves in a couple hours prior to sunrise, and the effects of atmospheric cooling are able to set in, this would also support wintry precipitation for a slightly longer period than anticipated.

However, please keep in mind that these events have inverse impacts. Should precipitation roll in earlier than anticipated, we can also expect that cloud coverage would move into the area earlier than expected, leading to an increase in cloud coverage. On the other hand, if skies are able to clear, this would indicate that precipitation may take a bit longer to build into the area. Nonetheless, we are becoming less optimistic that this will be the widespread shovel-able snow event that we were hoping for.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

2:09 AM 12/1 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are now in effect across the northern portions of the forecast area, including ...
12/01/2025

2:09 AM 12/1 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are now in effect across the northern portions of the forecast area, including portions of Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Harford, and Washington Counties in Maryland, as well as portions of Adams and York Counties in Pennsylvania.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

This morning, a batch of showers moved across the area. Most areas saw this precipitation fall as rain, although norther...
11/30/2025

This morning, a batch of showers moved across the area. Most areas saw this precipitation fall as rain, although northern portions of the forecast area may have seen some snow, and even some minor accumulations on the typically cooler surfaces like yards, driveways, cars, rooftops, and sidewalks. Some additional precipitation is possible this afternoon, between 2:00 PM EST and 7:00 PM EST. With afternoon temperatures reaching into the low to mid-40s, any remaining precipitation will fall as rain. Rainfall totals will remain below 1/10”. Winds will blow into the area from the southwest around 10 MPH, with gusts as high as 25 MPH.

Between sunset this evening and sunrise on Monday, weather is expected to calm. Low temperatures are expected to dip into the upper 20s and low 30s. Winds will blow into the area from the west-northwest between 5 and 10 MPH. Wind gusts up to 25 MPH will remain possible. As a result, wind chills will likely dip as low as the upper 10s. Cloudy skies to begin the evening will gradually clear through the overnight hours.

During the day on Monday, high temperatures will run at values similar to what they are today, in the low to mid-40s. Predominantly clear skies in the morning will progressively become more cloudy through the afternoon. Winds will blow into the area from the northwest between 5 and 10 MPH. Wind chills will likely remain in the mid- to upper 30s for most of the period.

After sunset on Monday, winds are expected to die down below 5 MPH. Temperatures are also expected to drop below freezing, hanging in the upper 20s and low 30s for much of the area. Skies will be cloudy, with a low pressure system moving into the area from the west.

Precipitation associated with this system is expected to move into the area right around sunrise on Tuesday. Temperatures to the south of U.S. Route 50 are expected to be warm enough that snowfall will not be supported. For areas to the north, there is a bit more of a question.

At this time, it is looking like areas between U.S. Route 50 and Interstate 95 have the potential to see a very brief period of snowfall, prior to changing over to rain. Only minor accumulations less than 1” are anticipated.

For locations in the direct vicinity of Interstate 95 and to its north and west, this mixing period will likely last a bit longer. The duration of this period will be highly dependent on when precipitation moves into the area in relation to sunrise. Should it be a couple hours prior to sunrise, temperatures throughout the day will likely run a bit cooler than forecasted, leading to a more extended period of snow. If precipitation were to move in right around sunrise, areas south of Interstate 70 may see a fairly prompt transition to rainfall, with snow only lasting about an hour or two. Lastly, should things move into the area after sunrise, most precipitation across the entire forecast area will fall as rain.

This system is expected to produce some fairly steady precipitation rates. In total, precipitation is only expected to fall for about 12 hours, moving out of the area by Tuesday evening. However, liquid precipitation totals between 3/4" and 1 1/2” are expected. As a result, even a few hour of snowfall could produce a quick couple inches of snow. This is most likely across northern and western portions of the viewing area, to the north of the Mason-Dixon Line and the west of Frederick. These areas will likely see between 1” to 3” of snow accumulation. Areas north and west of Interstate 95 are still expected to see around 1” of snow as well.
..Senior Forecaster Zach...

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