18/05/2026
The Brain Keeps the Score
And sometimes it over predicts the worst case scenario
I didn’t fully understand what I was taking on when I started training with my first PRE. I knew he’d had a hard journey. Transported from Spain, ridden and handled in ways that hadn’t served him well. I knew he was tense. What I didn’t understand was that his tension would be so persistent and resistant, or that I’d have very little idea how to help him.
In the arena he was what’s commonly referred to as ‘sharp’. Head up, back tight, scanning. Out on hacks he seemed braced, waiting for something to go wrong. He didn’t switch on slowly. One moment he was calm, the next he was fully on, and getting him back down wasn’t easy. I was once left swinging from a low hanging branch I couldn’t pass under as he shot sideways through the woods after spotting a woman on the path ahead.
I tried a rope swinging bloke who wanted to move his feet. Yes, still feel bad about my one and only foray into NH. One session was enough.
Then gradual exposure. Keep going, keep trying, let him get used to things. It helped a little. It didn’t touch the core of what was going on.
More progress came when I engaged his mind. Transitions, lots of them. Lateral work in hand. Eventually clicker training, which turned out to be more useful than I expected. When his brain had a job to do the scanning reduced. His back softened. His tension became less. The final piece was moving to France where he could finally live a fully horse appropriate life. I now understand that should always be the first step, not the last.
It took a long time. Probably because I had no real idea what I was doing. I was still early in my understanding of equine behaviour and, if I’m honest, I was making it up as I went along.
Over time we became solid partners. He became my sit-on partner for lessons with nervous horses or riders. We’d walk with them in the arena and just lower the ‘temperature’. He taught refined students how to sit advanced movements. He was still a quick thinking horse. He could still expect the worst. But he wasn’t on constant scanning duty.
I began to hear about The Body Keeps the Score (Bessel van der Kolk) some years ago. It became popular in equestrian circles. We know the body participates in fear and stress, you can see that clearly in a tense horse. But the idea that the body itself stored trauma was something different.
A recent paper from Kotler, Mannino, Fox and Friston addresses this directly. They found that the body doesn’t keep the score. The brain does, through its prediction systems. Fidge wasn’t storing bad memories in his physical body. His brain was predicting danger. Constantly, in the background, running that same forecast over and over.
We might think of it as a forecasting system. The brain takes everything it has learned and uses it to predict what’s coming next. In a horse with a sound history, that system is flexible. Alert when it needs to be, relaxed when things are safe, curious with novelty, able to recover quickly when something does go wrong.
For Fidge that dial was stuck. His brain had decided the world was unpredictable and dangerous. So it looked for proof of that. A plastic bag, a shadow, a woman in the woods. Not because those things were genuinely dangerous but because a brain primed to expect threat will find it almost anywhere. A self fulfilling prophecy.
Was he stuck in a cycle of overestimation? I think so.
What I understand now is that in giving him something precise to think about, a transition, a lateral step, a click and reinforcement for something specific, I was giving his brain a different job. A break from scanning. Instead of predicting danger, it started to predict something else. Something more manageable. And in those moments of focus, he began to settle.
I can’t know this for certain. But given what we now know, I believe we can change those predictions. We can, over time, change what a horse expects the world to be.
He never became a bombproof horse. I’m not sure bombproof is actually something we want to have as a goal . But when he reacted he could reset. He became present rather than constantly somewhere else.
Elimination of reactivity is not the goal. Restoring flexibility is.
It takes as long as it takes. Usually a lot longer than most people are prepared for.
The body doesn’t keep the score. The brain gets stuck in overprediction mode. The way out is a horse appropriate life first, then creating new experiences well below threshold, adding triggers slowly and giving the horse time to recover. Every time.
A brain that has learned to predict danger can learn to predict something else thanks to neural plasticity.
Kotler S, Mannino M, Fox G and Friston K (2026) The body does not keep the score: trauma, predictive coding, and the restoration of metastability. Frontiers in Systems Neuroscience 20:1812957. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnsys.2026.1812957
Image Helena Lopes