31/07/2026
Correlation doesn’t imply causation
AKA just because your dog freaked out in the presence of something, it doesn’t mean that thing caused the issue.
This morning Ash chose to come for a walk, after not wanting to for a day or so. He was calm, relaxed, with no hypervigilance and sniffing the things dogs like to sniff. We passed a few dogs, and I dropped a couple of treats as they passed. Ash ate one, looked up at the dog passing, watched it for a few seconds, and put his head down again to find another. We carried on and as he was sniffing a branch that was on the ground, I spotted a runner heading towards us with a young husky. The dog was attached to a running belt, and the runner was keeping the dog engaged with her as they passed. We were off to the side, giving them plenty of room to pass, so I again dropped a couple of treats for Ash as they neared. He completely ignored them and asked to be picked up (he does this by coming and sitting in front of me, side on). I asked him if he wanted to be picked up and he clearly said “yes” by putting himself in my arms as I crouched next to him.
So, what caused him to panic? The most obvious thing would be the runner with the dog. Ash is worried by dogs, and when people run with dogs, it can look to other dogs as if the dog is running at them, which can cause them to panic or react defensively.
As a side note, I want to be clear that the runner with the husky was doing absolutely nothing wrong; the dog was under control, not eye-balling dogs as it went by, and clearly enjoying itself, this isn’t a runner/caniX bashing post!
Just because Ash panicked at the precise moment the runner went by, doesn’t mean that his panic was caused by the runner and dog. It’s very easy to make assumptions about what triggers big feelings in a dog when something like this happens, but this reaction from Ash is atypical of his reaction when worried by a dog. This is more commonly his reaction to sensory overload or sounds when he feels he can’t escape. We had a fence on one side and a dog on the other and a it's likely that a noise he heard (I didn’t/couldn’t hear it) caused him to panic but his escape route was closed.
Identifying what is triggering a reaction can be more difficult that it seems, and this is especially true of those dogs who react intermittently. The reaction isn’t always caused by the most obvious trigger; pain, sounds, the specific body language of a person/dog, even scent can make up part of the picture which causes a reaction.
This event also highlights why I still continue to use food when I'm out with Ash, all behaviour is information and the fact that he ignored the treats was instant info that all was not well in his world. He came and sat on my lap on the scooter and we went straight home. He's now fed and asleep and all is well again.
I couldn't write a post about correlation and causation without including one of the great Spurious Correlations charts from Tyler Vigen!