27/03/2026
Whilst I don’t short the way this war was started I certainly don’t support Iran
As anger grows at Trump for having clearly blundered into a chaotic, dangerous, and illegal war without any clear plan; it's worth just reaffirming a fundamental truth:
It is possible to object to the grounds Trump and Netanyahu have given for this war, to be outraged at their failure to gain any popular or legal consent for what they have started, and it is natural to want to see them punished for their ignorance and their arrogance... and still recognise that it is an objectively bad thing for Iran to come out of this war stronger than they were before.
Your enemy's enemy is not always your friend.
Not only is the regime a brutally repressive totalitarian institution that slaughters its own people by the thousands, but they are a hugely destabilising influence across the world.
While some may celebrate their arming and funding of Hamas as some humanitarian venture (I certainly do not), one need only look at the hundreds of thousands of Syrians they helped murder with the Assad regime to reveal their true humanitarian principles.
Half a million Syrians died in that civil war, and it was only thanks to Iranian and Russian support that Assad was able to violently resist his overthrow for so long. The same Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that the US military is now hitting were undoubtedly guilty of war crimes during that conflict.
The funding and arming of Hezbollah in Lebanon has created an ideologically driven military force more powerful than the state, leading to a political paralysis that has coincided with the decline of what was once one of the safest and most prosperous nations in the region.
Hezbollah has assassinated Prime Ministers, used violence to suppress dissent, and invited a state of constant warfare with Israel without the consent of the Lebanese people.
The crucial support Iran provides to the Houthis in Yemen has helped to sustain a horrific civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands of civilians, including as many as 100,000 children that have starved to death.
This is a violent fundamentalist group that has been accused of significant human rights violations upon the civilians they claim to liberate, including documented cases of torture and ex*****on against critics, journalists, human rights defenders, religious minorities, and political opponents.
In Iraq, where Iran has been heavily involved since the 2003 US invasion, the funding and training of Shia groups like the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) has helped the regime infiltrate Iraqi state institutions so perniciously that it has ensured that its fledgling democracy is incapable of escaping its sectarian divisions.
Further afield, Iran’s support of Russia's hostile war of conquest against Ukraine was an unforgivable betrayal of their own constitutional mandate to support resistance against "tyrants". Supplying the Russians with Iranian Shahed drones allowed the Kremlin to sustain large-scale strike campaigns on the Ukrainian peopleafter depleting much of its precision missile stockpile in the opening months of the war
Russia fired more than 55,000 Shahed style drones at Ukraine in 2025 alone, killing hundreds of civilians and destroying essential civilian energy infrastructure needed to keep the country defrosted though its bitter winters. Ukraine has done nothing to Iran to deserve these attacks, but they serve to support the anti-Western coalition that Iran belongs to.
If your first reaction to these observations is to say "yeah... but America" or "...but Israel", this is not a zero sum game. A more powerful and belligerent Iran will not cause its adversaries to be more docile, but will significantly increase the likelihood of an even more destructive regional war down the path.
Now to be clear, I'm not suggesting that the malevolence of the Iranian regime justifies or excuses this war. But what it does do is highlight just how disastrous the decision to go to war has been, not just for Trump, but for every traditional American ally.
The Gulf states have suffered billions of dollars of lost revenue as well as possibly irreversible damage to their reputations as economic safe havens, while almost every economy in the world is scrambling to avoid a recession induced by the conflict. In fact, the only nation that is winning out of this war is Russia, who have not only seen a massive spike in oil prices, but a reprieve in the sanctions that were strangling its war budget.
If Trump declares victory and walks away tomorrow, it may still be the best outcome for everyone. But it will be an outcome that will leave Iran in a stronger geopolitical position than they have ever been; and that leaves the USA and the "free world" in a substantially worse position than it was only a month ago.
