27/12/2017
Although Basil Liddell Hart and John Boyd may be considered two of the most brilliant military strategists of the modern era, the father of pure grand strategy is Greek military commander Epaminondas (418-362BC).
A year after the Battle of Leuctra, Epaminondas marched across the Peloponnesian peninsula in Sparta. The Spartans refused to be engaged in the open, so Epaminondas elected to pursue what Liddell Hart called “true grand strategy”. In the middle of Sparta Epaminondas founded a new city at Mount Ithome in Messenia state, then another, Megalopolis, in Arcadia.
Across time this resulted in an infiltration of Sparta’s population, the creation of an insurgency and the loss of most of its workers. Significantly, it established influence over more than half of Sparta’s territory, controlling trade and economic routes. No battle was fought, not an arrow was fired nor a spear thrown.
Similarly, by penetrating the integrated systems and networks of government, business information, media, resources and strategic energy and maritime assets, China has sought to weave together an impressive influence within Australia and many other parts of the world. China’s pure grand strategy presents a significant geopolitical risk for us, particularly for investors, where these crucial areas of business, government and politics intersect.
When crossing the river on the border of Cote d’Ivoire and Mali with the Dozos (traditional hunters who act as a kind of village neighbourhood watch), you can see them ride their motorbikes on to a canoe and remain in the seat until they cross to the other side, where they ride off into the Mali savanna. No one told them they couldn’t do that, so they adapted.
No one told China it couldn’t build new islands on partly submerged reefs and claim them as Chinese territory with an exclusive zone of influence. No one said it couldn’t then place missiles, airstrips, helipads and satellite infrastructure on those islands. Throughout the history of China’s claim for the South China Sea, nothing was done to contain its application of grand strategy, except an appeal to a toothless international tribunal whose decision no one is willing or able to enforce.
The geopolitical risks built around this form of pure grand strategy are borderless and their effects can emerge in ways that may seem incongruent. When former US president Barack Obama failed to enforce his “red line” against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against civilians, this sent the message to other nations that they could expand regional hegemonic claims without repercussions.
Indeed, whenever concern is expressed over the militarisation of the South China Sea islands, China plays the Obi-Wan Kenobi Jedi mind trick by claiming “there is nothing to see here”.
China’s use of pure grand strategy through the indirect approach was revealed three years before the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the US, when two senior serving officers in the People’s Liberation Army, colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, wrote Unrestricted Warfare. In this slim volume the PLA officers advocate the use of non-military methods of waging war to defeat technologically superior opponents, such as the US.
The suggested methods include disrupting the networks of trade, telecommunications and transportation on which the West depends, as well as electricity grids and avenues of information technology (for instance through incessant hacking) including mass media, plus financial and economic manipulation.
This indirect approach is a clever means of gaining geopolitical advantage while avoiding direct military conflict.
China’s investment in a range of strategically located foreign ports around the world is more than smart supply-chain management. These investments create enormous leverage for China in the domestic and foreign policy interests of the countries that sold these ports to China. The effect of this positioning can be subtly played out in votes at the UN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum, the World Trade Organisation and a range of other multilateral bodies.
Not surprisingly, the authors also advocate manipulating the West’s commitment to international rules and conventions, such as the Law of Armed Conflict. Liang and Xangsui believe in fully exploiting the way the West imposes political and moral restraints on how its military forces can fight.
China has one of the largest seaborne guerilla fleets in the world. Under the cover of fishing, the on-water militia acts as a proxy force to extend and enforce China’s maritime interests. If it is attacked or threatened, China can claim its civilians are being unfairly targeted and generate strong nationalistic sentiment among mainland Chinese and those living abroad.
China shares a border with more countries than any other state. Since 1949, it has had border disputes with every one of its neighbours. Yet China also has resolved its border disputes with most of them, including Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan and Laos. It even has managed to reach territorial settlements with former enemies, notably Vietnam and Russia.
One of the best questions to ask an Australian prime minister is: how does Australia position itself between the US, our most important ally, and China, our most significant trading partner and increasingly the major owner of strategic assets in Australia and throughout our region?
One thing is for sure: given that the consequences of military conflict between leading powers threaten greater harm than perhaps at any time in history because of the complex and deeply integrated nature of economies and populations, now that these strategic locations and assets are lost, China’s ability to influence our national interests is likely only to grow.
Jason Thomas teaches risk management at Swinburne University and specialises in field-based assessments of complex project environments in countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Pakistan.
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Chris 21 MINUTES AGO
Last year China scrapped its one child policy.... Its growing middle class will easily be able to afford three or four children - Families in China have historically been large because of the high infant/young adult mortality rate...
China's population is about to explode..Now ask yourself this. What is the only island in the region that has a small population and tens of thousands of uninhabited "Sprattley Islands" ready for terra forming. It has beautiful weather and has the worlds most untouched natural resources and teaming with sea food.
Don't kid yourself. China has its eyes on Australia. Time to wake up and face the music
5UNLIKEREPLY
Yvonne 13 MINUTES AGO
Australia has always been the envy of the world - that's why the UN and our stupid politicians have allowed mass immigration - China has been creeping into Australia for the last 30 odd years - we were told in 1958 "beware of the yellow peril from the East" - of course China wants Australia - why not you ask - it is a wonderful country slowly being damaged by immigration and infiltration by China
1LIKEREPLY
Colin 21 MINUTES AGO
Oh well done Jason Thomas! Who would have thought? Chinese influence in Australia...what a penetrating revelation. Chinese under the beds everywhere it seems. Thank heavens for risk analysis academics who are on to them...I will sleep easier tonight.
2LIKEREPLY
Alexis 23 MINUTES AGO
Excellent article. Thank you Jason. I will be sharing this with lots of people.
7UNLIKEREPLY
Mark 32 MINUTES AGO
Australia under the watch of all governments since Fraser has been easy meat to the PRC. The current government wouldnt know if its Arthur or Martha, hence China buying up Australian land, infrastructure, airports, politicians (example Dastyari ) etc etc. Why invade when you can just buy it !
6LIKEREPLY
Robert 41 MINUTES AGO
In retrospect Obama may yet turn out to be the worst President ever.
One has to wonder what the Nobel committee were thinking when they threw the prize at him.
He opened the door for Putin and China, strengthened the Mullahs dictatorial hold on Iran, their spread of the Shia Crescent and alienated the Sunnis.
To call Obama a do nothing President would be a compliment,he was far worse.
5LIKEREPLY
Jason S 56 MINUTES AGO
The only positive outcome will be if China realises its best interests are not served by imperialist expansion but through cooperation and trade. I'd rather the POUS be Trump than Obama right now.
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Catherine 3 HOURS AGO
The assumption that China’s economic liberalisation and prosperity would be paralleled by democratisation and non-expansionist intentions was both naive and wrong.
China has serious imperial ambitions, and- as this analysis confirms- the strategic groundwork has been established “in plain sight”— unchallenged (if not enabled) over many years, and now largely beyond the point of recovery.
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ROSS 3 HOURS AGO
We must stand up to China..we know what they are doing..we can also tweek our rules and laws and fight back knowing their strategy..stop selling the ports, stop selling them the farmland. .
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Jefferson 4 HOURS AGO
A very, very interesting column. The Chinese love playing the long game. Their opponent, the U.S., is attempting to keep the idea of Democracy alive and is attacked whenever it tries to influence events toward that end, whereas, China is only and unashamedly interested in raw power for itself. For too many years the West has allowed itself to be made to feel guilty for the Colonial era and China, among others, takes huge advantage from this. America has always retreated into a kind of isolationism in that it didn't take over countries in the way the Soviets did after WW2, rather, it assisted in their re-building and left them to rule themselves.
Jason Thomas puts it beautifully when he writes above that "Liang and Xangsui believe in fully exploiting the way the West imposes political and moral restraints on how its military forces can fight.". None of the West's opponents impose moral restraints on how their military forces can fight, only political.
I am glad that Trump is re-establishing the concept of America unashamedly pursuing it's own best interests. I hope he holds strong against all those whose agenda is to weaken our civilisation, wittingly or unwittingly. I just wish our "leaders" would do the same for our nation.
10UNLIKEREPLY
Brian 5 HOURS AGO
China certainly resolved its border dispute with Tibet.
8UNLIKEREPLY
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