Astar Thoroughbreds

06/16/2025

At age 73, I had a near heat stroke at an outside family event a couple days ago. Suddenly my head was pounding, my heart rate jumped well beyond the norm, my own voice echoed in my ears every time…

05/18/2025

On this bright and bustling Preakness Day in 2025, I found myself deep in thought, reflecting on the current state of horse racing in America. Once upon a time, I viewed racing through a lens of ro…

09/04/2024

$170,000 purse for State Bred “Maidens” at Kentucky Downs this week. Amazing what progressive state breeders can do when they think ahead!

08/19/2024

Thanks to many for the feedback related to the new website, Old Man Truth. Nephew Mateaus even caught a content error for me.

Since I have a few broken down old horse player buddies, one asked if I could include some analysis articles on horse racing. Frankly, I have more than you can imagine in my files so I dug one out and reconfigured it this morning for the blog website. Here is the direct link to that article. If the nerdy statistical detail doesn't bore you to death, you may find it interesting. Enjoy.

Throughout the years, I have been involved in numerous seminars on the complex and ever-changing topics of probability, prediction, and variation. Each time, I discovered that it was far more cruci…

07/08/2024

The report also revealed startling statistics about trainers and breeders with significantly higher-than-average fatality rates

07/08/2024

Briannah McDaniel, who admitted her role in the scheme and provided "substantial assistance" in the investigation, suspended 45 days

05/17/2024

Had the Oaks and 5 straight on the first Saturday in May, but alas 2nd in the big race, though still a nice win ATB. All I'm saying for the 2nd Leg is Dan and Freedom exotics.

If you think this is code and don't understand it, don't bet.

Good Luck.

05/05/2024

I Was asked this Derby week how to handicap by an old high school friend. (Yep, a few us are still alive.) While it would take weeks to properly teach handicapping, I’ll make some simple comments.

First, I won the Oaks, which was followed by a 2nd place nose loss by Sierra Leone in the Derby. That’s Okay. Why?

You see, Sierra Leone was the best horse in the race but didn’t win because the race paths were vastly different. While the long shot winner saved ground near the rails on both turns, Sierra ran wider in both turns, even going 5 wide coming home.

In other words, his race was near 6 lengths longer (physical impact related to the circumference of the turns half circles) for Sierra than Dan, plus a stretch battle and bumping (which is part of racing by the way) slowed him and the Japanese horse considerably.

Variation is always a funny thing and very difficult to predict. If you ever doubled down on 11 in blackjack, and on the subsequently dealt card got an Ace through 5, you might understand how you can do the right thing and lose. It’s no different in horse racing.

I once instructed executives and students related to variation, and how data science allows you to deploy statistical methods to determine true trends and probabilities. A case study could be made related to the Derby, and those that bet on the big favorite Fierceness.

The running variation related to Fierceness was extreme. His last race speed rating was great and he won by 13 1/2 lengths, but the Equibase SR was 20 points higher than the prior race, and last year as a 2 year old he had a massive 37 point swing from race to race! His variable performance indicated no predictive trend based on my analysis but the bettors, and the world at large, “always” use recent data points to predict the future, or a trend.

Just “critically” listen to the last data point false trends reported in the news any night of the week if you don’t believe me.

Speed ratings are just one algorithm element that can be used to handicap horse racing. However, do you know which two horses, in the 20 horse Derby field, had the best such average rating for “all” their races in 2024? Yep. Mystic Dan (18 to 1 really?) first, Sierra Leone second, and for all I know Forever Young could have been there also but such comparative ratings are not available in Japan.

Such is life, as an old man ponders an other example related to the importance of understanding variation.

05/03/2024

You know, at age 71 and studying it for over 60 years, I’ve forgotten more about gambling and horse racing than most people will ever know.

So, it’s Hilarious seeing people bet horses who come off Lasix. Pipeline in the Alysheba …. 2nd favorite finishing dead last.

Yep, you need to handicap the drugs, the cheaters and the horses.

05/02/2024

"Sierra Leone", and that's all I'm going to say. Good Luck.