12/11/2024
Stay safe everyone on the Fraser coast and all along thr affected area of the severe storm.
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Possibly the most volatile severe thunderstorm setup so far this season is on the cards for today (Wednesday) and tomorrow with severe storm potential initially stretching all the way from Southern QLD through eastern NSW and down to eastern VIC! ⚡️
The main areas that'll need the closest monitoring though are parts of Southern QLD and northeast NSW.
But a couple of potential complicators to watch out for are that cloud currently moving across from the west and that ever-present risk of too many storms forming too early (or forming a squall line) - either of these can take the edge off things if they can't be overcome.
Nevertheless, while not every single person is going to get a big storm, they’re still highly likely to affect many locations in the zone mentioned above and in a small handful of places, could become destructive.
Also the possibility of some areas getting showers/storms overnight tonight although this would be less likely if there’s widespread activity this afternoon and evening.
Many of the key ingredients for severe storms are there - strong speed and directional shear, strong instability, triggers (dryline, upper level support and in tomorrow's case, a coastal change with a triple point) and adequate sunshine in many areas to allow for heating.
Tomorrow generally sees somewhat drier atmospheric profiles in our area but more isolated storms can also sometimes lead to more severe storms due to cells not interfering with each other as much.
Lots of instability continues beyond tomorrow in SEQ and NE NSW but by then, shear starts dropping off so the threats of widespread large to giant hail/damaging to destructive winds with the higher-end storms start to moderate.
Here’s an automatically-generated thunderstorm map covering the 9am to midnight period today.
Source: Brisbane Storms