31/03/2026
There is increasing potential for a developing cyclone this weekend, near Queensland.
Whilst as stated in updates this morning, there is still no cause for concern for the Queensland coastline due to the fact there is no track consensus between models, there is now an area to monitor closely out in the Coral Sea from about Saturday onwards for potential cyclone development.
A broad low is beginning to develop, and BoM predict a high (55%) chance of cyclone development within the next 7 days. This is aggressive, especially when considering this is their first update on the system now tagged as 37U.
Whilst models and the OCF forecasts are still very much undecided on the storms future track (with most indicating a push towards Queensland in about 10 days time), I have noted that a weak upper ridge is likely to establish itself over Vanuatu/eastern Coral Sea region around this time, which will likely slowly push the system towards Queensland. Any change in this will obviously change the future track, so we need to monitor the placement and strength of this ridge very closely.
It goes without saying that it being this early in the storms future and forecast, that there is obviously no direct threat to any land areas right now. in saying that, interests along the Central, Northern and Far Northern Queensland coastlines should watch the forecast closely in the coming week, and act when (or if) they are advised to do so.
The wet season is NOT done yet! Don't get complacent folks. Cheers, Josh.